Journal de psychologie légale

Abstrait

Solar-Driven Geomagnetic Disturbances Impact Homicide Rates in Europe and the USA

Alfredo Behrens, Kaizo Iwakami Beltrao, Agostinho Leite D Almeida

We argue that the similarity in the temporal patterns of international homicide rates recommends looking beyond local environment crime conditionings. We applied OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regressions of geomagnetic variables on yearly homicide rates to identify the planetary drivers for homicides rates in Germany, the U.K., and the USA, over 1987 through 2018. We revealed that lagged Kp index for geomagnetic disturbances explained over half the variance in homicide rates in all three countries. We also predicted homicide rates peaking in the USA for 2025 and for Germany and the U.K. in 2026. Our study suggests that extending environmental approaches to include geomagnetic disturbances may help better understand human aggressive behavior and help forensic and medical authorities prepare for likely surges in violent behavior, as the current 25^th solar cycle may induce stronger and more frequent geomagnetic disturbances.